Are We Fast Approaching a Second Civil War?
America’s Fourth Turning and the imperative to avoid catastrophe
Estimated read time is 7 minutes.
In the past two posts, we’ve explored how political equality and liberty are central to our national project. While future posts will examine other foundational principles, today I want to focus on what happens when Americans believe their fundamental rights are under threat.
History Has a Shape
I believe history has a shape. The Founders certainly thought so, and allusions to this idea are woven throughout the Declaration of Independence. Many scholars have explored this concept, finding compelling evidence that historical patterns repeat in meaningful ways. As Mark Twain is often credited with saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
In the 1990s, William Strauss and Neil Howe popularized a model explaining how generational cycles shape politics. Their research found that history follows a predictable pattern, driven by four generational archetypes—Prophets (e.g., Boomers), Nomads (e.g., Gen X), Heroes (e.g., Millennials), and Artists (e.g., Gen Z)—that emerge in a fixed sequence.
Each generation develops distinct characteristics based on the social and political conditions of its youth, which in turn shape what Strauss and Howe call turnings—four cyclical phases that repeat roughly every twenty years:
First Turning: High – a period of strong institutions and collective optimism.
Second Turning: Awakening – a time of spiritual upheaval and challenge to established values.
Third Turning: Unraveling – an era of weakening institutions and rising individualism.
Fourth Turning: Crisis – a period of major upheaval and reconstruction.
Each turning sets the stage for the next, forming a recurring historical cycle.
We are now in a Fourth Turning. It was preceded by the post-WWII economic boom (High), the counterculture revolution (Awakening), and the rise of neoliberalism (Unraveling). The current crisis began with the Great Recession and is expected to culminate in the early 2030s. As we’ve seen, this era is marked by upheaval, deep polarization, challenges to institutions, and the erosion of individual rights.
Crisis and the Threat of Civil War
Historically, these crises have always ended in either a civil war or a great power war. Civil war crises are the most common, occurring during the War of the Roses (1459–1487), the Glorious Revolution (1675–1704), the American Revolution (1773–1789), and the American Civil War (1860–1868). Today, people sometimes talk about civil war in half-serious tones, but most don’t truly believe it could happen. That misconception stems from our preoccupation with the American Civil War, which distorts our understanding of these conflicts. We imagine them as sectional battles, with one region fighting another. But that’s rarely how they unfold.
The American Revolution offers a better model. While we often frame it as a war between the colonial and British armies, it was also a civil war, with patriots and loyalists fighting across the colonies. It was fragmented, widespread, and lacked clear geographical lines.
We ignore this history at our peril. Even if civil war cannot be entirely avoided, steps can be taken to limit its bloodshed. The Glorious Revolution, for instance, led to major institutional reforms with minimal violence. Perhaps more importantly, we must consider the structural changes needed to reunite the nation.
If we’re to defeat the forces of plutocracy and autocracy in the final years of this crisis, we must first recognize the threat they pose—and convince those who have been led to support them that their true interests lie elsewhere. Winning this battle isn’t just about opposing the ultra-rich and their enablers; it’s about showing their followers they have far more to gain from a different future.
The Rising Appeal of Autocracy
Although the thought of civil war is truly terrifying, it’s hard to ignore the reality that our way of life is at risk. The United States prides itself on being a democracy, yet its political system has become fundamentally unrepresentative. Strong majorities of Americans support policies that would expand economic security, strengthen democratic institutions, and limit the power of the ultra-wealthy. And yet, time and again, these priorities are ignored by a system that favors entrenched interests over the popular will.
In response, many working-class Americans—frustrated by the failures of both parties—have turned to the one that at least nominally aligns with their cultural values, even as it works against their economic interests. The result has been a growing embrace of autocratic institutions, as more people come to believe that only unchecked power can transform their political desires into real government action.
The Tyranny of the Minority
This is the logical, yet tragic, outcome of a system designed to prevent any single majority from imposing its will too easily. James Madison feared what he called the “tyranny of the majority” and built a government full of veto points, allowing minority factions to block change even when most Americans demanded it. What he failed to anticipate was that a minority faction might not just obstruct bad policy but also prevent government from addressing urgent, real-world problems—especially in a far more complex and rapidly changing world.
And that is exactly what has happened. Today, Madison’s system has been weaponized by financial elites and their political enablers, who use constitutional choke points to thwart the will of the people. As a result, policies backed by strong majorities—whether on wages, healthcare, education, childcare, family leave, infrastructure, or the environment—are systematically blocked, delayed, or gutted into irrelevance.
Our governing structures no longer reflect the realities of modern America. The Senate, Electoral College, and gerrymandered single-member House districts all amplify the power of a shrinking minority at the expense of a poorly organized majority. This growing disenfranchisement has real consequences. It breeds frustration, cynicism, and—most dangerously—despair. When people feel voiceless in their own government, they begin to question its legitimacy. And history shows that when a system remains too unresponsive, crises follow.
Lessons from the Founders
The Founders faced this very dilemma. They lived through a Fourth Turning crisis that tore their communities apart and turned their land into a battlefield. Ultimately, they concluded that the existing system could no longer protect their fundamental rights. In response, they took extraordinary steps to create a new government—one designed to safeguard freedom while ensuring security and prosperity.
But the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution were meant to be instruments of self-governance, not relics to be worshipped. If we are to avoid disaster, we must recognize where these institutions have failed and pursue the reforms necessary to restore true political equality.
The Road Ahead
What remains unclear is whether we can do that without a full-blown civil war. It’s also possible that the foreign policy ineptitude of the current administration could inadvertently lead us into a great power war—like the Spanish Armada Crisis (1569–1594) or World War II (1929–1946)—which, in the nuclear age, could prove even more catastrophic than a domestic conflict. An even likelier outcome is a second financial crisis, driven by imprudent tariffs, reckless deregulation, and disastrous monetary policies like breaching the debt ceiling.
One way or another, every news story I read these days reinforces the sense that our crisis is deepening by the minute. We are rapidly approaching the climax of this Fourth Turning—the moment where institutions either collapse or are fundamentally reshaped, often through war, revolution, or economic upheaval. Just as the Founders once did, each of us must decide what we are willing to risk to prevent catastrophe and halt the march of autocracy.
We must do this for all the obvious reasons—but also for the one I raised in my very first post: the only thing that can prevent America from being the most powerful nation in the world this century, given our immense advantages over our competitors, is ourselves. We cannot let that happen.
In coming posts, we’ll return to the foundational principles that can guide us toward the better future we all want—laying the groundwork for the next First Turning.